Fünf Jahre nach der Annexion der Krim und dem Beginn des bewaffneten Konflikts in Donbas scheint die Situation in der Ukraine unverändert. Selbst der Minsk-Prozess konnte zu keiner Verbesserung des Russland-Ukraine-Konflikts beitragen. Die Ukraine ist ein Land des Krieges und das Bild einer vereinten Nation beginnt zu bröckeln.
Jedoch könnten neue Faktoren Einfluss auf diesen „Frozen Conflict“ und dessen zukünftigen Verlauf haben: Der aktuelle Status Quo könnte sich durch den neu gewählten ukrainischen Präsidenten verändern, „Fatigue“ politische Eliten der Ukraine könnten einen neuen Aufschwung erleben, westliche Institutionen und Organisationen wie die OSCE könnten zur Verbesserung der derzeitigen Lage beitragen. Der Russland-Ukraine-Konflikt ist ein multidimensionales und komplexes Phänomen, dessen Lösung nur durch einen offenen und transparenten Dialog aller beteiligten Parteien erreicht werden kann. Falls es scheitert, verschiebt sich die Grenze zwischen Politik und Krieg in eine negative Richtung weiter und die Instrumentalisierbarkeit eines Proxi-Krieges verstärkt sich.
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