Öt évvel a Krím félsziget annektálását és a donbassi fegyveres konfliktus kitörését követően az ukrán helyzet látszólag mi sem változott. Még a minszki folyamat sem volt képes elősegíteni az orosz-ukrán konfliktus megoldását. Ukrajnában háború zajlik, és az egységes nemzet képe kezd széttöredezni.
Azonban új tényezők befolyásolhatják ezt a "befagyott konfliktust" és az események jövőbeni alakulását: a jelenlegi status quo az újonnan megválasztott ukrán elnök révén megváltozhat, a "kifáradt" ukrán politikai elit újra lendületet vehet, nyugati intézményeket és szervezeteket, mint például az EBESZ segíthet a jelenlegi helyzet javításában. Az orosz – ukrán konfliktus egy többdimenziós és összetett jelenség, amelynek megoldása csak az összes érintett fél közötti nyílt és átlátható párbeszéd révén érhető el. Ha ez nem sikerül, akkor a politika és a háború közötti határ negatív irányban mozdulhat el, és tovább nő egy proxy háború instrumentalizálásának lehetősége.
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